基于层次分析法的地区节能潜力评价模型研究

Research on Evaluation Model of Regional Energy Saving Potential Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

在能源消费总量和能源消费强度目标分配过程中,需要建立一套合理的指标分解方法,用于衡量该地区的节能潜力。应用层次分析法,从节能责任、节能能力、节能潜力、节能难度四个方面选取能源消费总量、GDP、人均能源消费量、高耗能行业比重、人均GDP等10个指标,根据不同的情景设置权重,构建节能潜力评价模型。以东莞为例,根据城市节能潜力指标评价模型测算东莞各片区节能综合指数,可为地区五年规划或年度节能减排目标测算提供参考。

In the process of urban energy consumption total control and energy saving target decomposition,it is necessary to construct a set of fair and scientific indicators for measuring the potential of energy conservation for each district.In this paper,the Analytic Hierarchy Process method is used to select ten factors like the total energy consumption,GDP,per capita energy consumption,the proportion of energy-consuming industries,the per capita GDP,from the four aspects of energy conservation responsibility,energy conservation capacity,energy conservation potential,and energy conservation difficulty.Different scenarios weight values are constructed to build an energy conservation potential evaluation model.With Dongguan as an example,according to the urban energy conservation potential evaluation model,the comprehensive index of energy conservation in each district are measured,which can provide reference for target calculation of regional five-year plan or annual energy saving and emission reduction.