夏季城市用电短期负荷预测方法研究

Study on Short-term Load Forecasting Method of Urban Power in Summer

提出了一种夏季城市短期用电负荷预测新方法。该方法基于城市预报温度导数值与城市用电负荷导数值的强相关性,在不求出负荷预测函数的条件下,使用常微分方程的数值解法,建立新型夏季短期城市用电负荷预测模型。该模型能够快速跟踪气象条件变化,遵循负荷变化趋势,提高预测精度,为城市用电负荷预测提供了一种新的思路。通过对华东某城市夏季负荷数据的预测及与其他算法的比较,证明该算法能够有效地提高夏季城市短期负荷预测的精度。

A new forecasting method for short-term urban power load in summer is presented in this paper.Based on the strong correlation between the derivative value of urban forecasting temperature and the derivative value of urban power load,a new shortterm urban power load forecasting model in summer is established by using the numerical solution of ordinary differential equation without calculating the load forecasting function.This model can quickly track the change of meteorological conditions,follow the trend of load change and improve the forecasting accuracy,which provides a new solution for urban power load forecasting.Through the forecasting of summer power load data of a city in East China and the comparison with other algorithms,it is proved that the algorithm can effectively improve the accuracy of short-term urban power load forecasting in summer.