结合SAL方法的四川盆地暴雨过程检验及订正方法

Testing and Revision of Rainstorm Process in Sichuan Basin with SAL Method

该文利用预报员最常用的数值预报模式产品(ECMWF、SWC-WARM、GRAPES-MESO、GRAPES-GFS)结合常规观测资料对比分析了2019年四川盆地6次区域性暴雨过程,同时引入SAL方法,通过主观、客观检验方法得出不同类型下各家模式对强降水的预报误差及订正方法。结果表明:ECMWF、SWC-WARM较GRAPES-MESO、GRAPES-GFS有明显优势,同时:①西部Ⅰ型,ECMWF、SWC-WARM两家模式预报偏差较小,SWC-WARM在雨带范围和量级强度上优于ECMWF。②西部Ⅱ型,ECMWF、SWC-WARM两家模式都存在系统偏西导致降水落区偏西、量级偏弱的情况,ECMWF在雨带形态范围上略优于SWC-WARM,但SWC-WARM能较好的预报出分散的强降水中心,具有一定的指示意义。③东部型,ECMWF、SWC-WARM两家模式预报偏差都较大,除了对系统东西向偏差外还受低涡移动影响存在南北向偏差,ECMWF在雨带形态范围上优于SWC-WARM。

Numerical forecast model in this paper,using the forecasters are the most commonly used products(ECMWF,SWC-WARM,GRAPES-MESO,GRAPES-GFS)combined with conventional observation data analysis of the six regional rainstorm process in sichuan basin in 2019,at the same time introducing SAL method,through subjective and objective test methods under different types of each pattern of strong precipitation forecast error and correction method.The results show that ECMWF and SWC-WARM have obvious advantages over GRAPES-MESO and GRAPES-GFS.At the same time:①the westernⅠtype,the ECMWF,SWC-WARM two model forecast deviation is small,the SWC-WARM rains in scope and scale of intensity is better than that of ECMWF.②the westernⅡtype,ECMWF,SWC-WARM two patterns are system by west lead to precipitation falls area by west,weaker orders of magnitude,the ECMWF slightly better than in the scope of our rain belt form SWC-WARM,but these SWC-WARM can better forecast the scattered heavy rain center,has a certain instruction significance.③the eastern type,ECMWF and SWC-WARM,models have large prediction deviations.In addition to the east-west deviation of the system,there is a south-north deviation under the influence of low vortex movement.ECMWF is superior to SWC-WARM,in the rain belt shape range.