无资料流域径流模拟预测研究进展综述

A review of runoff prediction in ungauged basins

缺乏监测的水文数据是流域水资源科学高效管理面临的一个重大挑战,为此,国际水文科学学会认为无资料流域水文预测,简称为PUB(predictions in ungauged basins)是水文水资源研究的难点问题。随着PUB十年计划的提出,围绕该主题的研究逐渐受到国内外众多学者的关注,通过总结当前研究,本文从借“什么米”、向谁借“米”及如何使用借来的“米”三个方面对无资料流域径流模拟预测的研究方法进行了梳理。在此基础上,分析讨论当前研究存在的问题,最后结合我国的实际状况对未来研究方向进行了展望,为PUB研究提供了较为综合的信息参考。

Lacking the observed hydrological data is one of the important challenges in efficient water resources management,and thus the International Association of Hydrological Sciences considered the runoff prediction in ungauged basins(PUB)as the challenging research topic in the field of hydrology and water resources.After the launch of PUB decade,PUB got more attention and research in the world.This paper summarized the research methodologies from three aspects:What kind of‘rice’to borrow?Where to borrow the‘rice’from?How to use the borrowed‘rice’?Then,the paper made a discussion on and analysis of current research,proposing some topics for future research by concerning the facts of our country.This paper provided a comprehensive reference information in PUB research.