工业碳排放与经济增长的关系——基于速度脱钩和数量脱钩的实证研究

The Relationship between Industrial Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth:A Validated Analysis Based on the Decoupling between Speed and Quantity

本文以2001—2019年为研究期限,采用速度脱钩与数量脱钩两种方法,探究中国工业碳排放与经济增长的关系。脱钩分析显示:中国工业碳排放与经济增长二者之间存在脱钩效应,不同工业行业的脱钩指数有较大差异。工业EKC曲线为倒U型,现阶段位于曲线的右侧;采掘业与水电、煤气及水生产和供应业的EKC曲线呈现倒N型,制造业呈现倒U型,现阶段均位于曲线右侧。研究结果表明,工业领域采取严格的环境管控政策,可以促进经济增长与环境改善,实现经济与环境二者双赢。

Taking 2001—2019 as the observation period,in this paper,we employed the method of speed decoupling and quantity decoupling to analyze the relationship between industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in China.Our results show that there is a decoupling effect between industrial carbon emissions and economic growth in China,and the decoupling indices in different industries are significantly different.The industrial EKC curve exhibited an inverted-U shape,which is located on the right side of the curve at the present stage.The EKC curves of extractive industries and hydropower together with gas and water production and supply industries were inverted"N"type,those of the remaining manufacturing industries were inverted"U"type,and they were all located on the right side of the curves.It is concluded that in order to achieve economic growth and environmental improvement,strict environmental control policies should be adopted in industry.Thus,a win-win situation for both the economy and the environment can be achieved.