摘要
本文研究了优化投资结构促消费的可能性。一般均衡模型分析表明,虽然政府主导的基础设施投资能促进特定商品的消费,但对总消费率不利;企业投资既能促进关联商品的消费,更能促进总消费率提升。基于2007—2018年省级面板数据的实证分析验证了上述判断:以公路为代表的基础设施投资促进了汽车消费,但政府投资对总消费率有挤出效应;企业主导的软件开发等投资对电子商务消费产生了持续的促进作用,企业投资对总消费率产生了挤入效应,但需假以时日才逐步显现。因此,应通过压缩政府投资空间、调动企业投资积极性,并将投资重心转向以新基建为代表的新兴领域,以优化投资结构,促进消费水平的提高。
This paper studies the possibility of optimizing the investment structure to promote consumption.The analysis of the general equilibrium model shows that although government-led infrastructure investment can promote the consumption of specific commodities,it is unfavorable to the total consumption rate.Enterprise investment can promote not only the consumption of related commodities,but also the overall consumption rate.The empirical analysis based on the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2018 verifies the above findings:investment in infrastructure represented by roads promotes automobile consumption,but government investment has a crowding-out effect on the total consumption rate.Investment in software development led by enterprises has continuously promoted e-commerce consumption,and enterprise investment also has a crowding-in effect on the total consumption rate,but it will take time to gradually appear.Based on this,this paper puts forward suggestions on how to optimize the investment structure and promote consumption.
作者
刘元春
丁洋
LIU Yuanchun;DING Yang(Renmin University of China)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第10期5-20,共16页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“现代宏观经济学的困境与发展思路”(14ZDB123)。
关键词
投资结构
消费
挤出效应
挤入效应
Investment Structure
Consumption
Crowding-Out Effect
Crowding-In Effect
