汇率波动、金融结构与技术创新

Exchange Rate Volatility,Financial Structure and Technological Innovation

随着全球经济不确定性的上升,我国"创新驱动发展"战略的实施面临诸多挑战,金融供给侧结构性改革作为激发新动能的重要路径选择,备受各界关注。本文将金融结构的异质性纳入分析框架,系统考察了汇率波动与一国技术创新水平之间的关系。研究发现:汇率波动对一国技术创新具有显著的抑制作用,并且对发展中国家的负向冲击大于发达国家;汇率波动对一国技术创新负向冲击的影响随着技术创新分位点的上升而逐渐减小,2008年金融危机的爆发放大了汇率波动对一国技术创新水平的抑制作用。机制检验发现,国家风险触发效应和研发投入冲击效应是汇率波动影响一国技术创新水平的重要渠道。此外,引入金融结构指标研究发现,相较于银行主导型,市场主导型金融结构更有助于缓解汇率波动对一国技术创新的负向冲击,并且金融结构存在门限效应,跨过门限值调节作用将大大增强。

With the rise of global economic uncertainty,China faces many challenges in the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy.As an important path to stimulating new drivers of growth,the financial supply-side structural reform has attracted much attention from all walks of life.In this paper,we analyze the heterogeneity of the financial structure and systematically examine the relationship between exchange rate volatility and a country’s technological innovation ability.The instrumental variable method is used to deal with the endogeneity problem.We find that:the exchange rate volatility has a significant inhibitory effect on technological innovation,and it is more so in developing countries than in developed countries.As a country rises in the ranking of technological innovation,the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on technological innovation decreases gradually.The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 strengthened the inhibiting effect of exchange rate volatility on a country’s technological innovation ability.According to the mechanism of action test,the national risk triggering effect and the shock effect of R&D investment are the important channels through which the exchange rate volatility affects the technological innovation ability.In addition,after introducing the financial structure index we find that,compared with the bank-led financial structure,the market-led financial structure is more conducive to easing the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on technological innovation,and the financial structure has a threshold effect:once the threshold is crossed,the regulatory role will be greatly enhanced.