县域视角下云南省农村贫困空间差异及其影响因素

Rural Poverty Spatial Difference and Influencing Factors in Rural Areas of Yunnan Province

脱贫攻坚是乡村振兴的基础,乡村振兴是脱贫攻坚的提升,两者的有机衔接是开启第二个百年目标的重中之重.选取2012—2018年云南省129个县区(县级市)作为研究对象,采用空间自相关和GWR模型,分析农村贫困的空间分异特征及其影响因素.研究结果表明:云南省农村贫困集聚程度较深,地理空间差异悬殊,但总体贫困程度有所下降;县域贫困具有较强空间集聚性,H-H组主要集中于福贡县、维西县、永善县和绿春县等滇西北、滇西南、滇东北的热点地区,贫困发生率L-L组主要集中于盘龙区、西山区和红塔区等滇东中部的冷点地区.通过GWR模型测算发现:居民人均储蓄额、财政自给率对云南省农村空间贫困化的正向影响程度最为显著,单位面积粮食产量的正向影响程度较为显著;而城镇化率和人口密度的负向影响程度较为显著,农村居民可支配收入负向影响次之,人均生产总值的负向影响程度较弱.

Poverty alleviation is the foundation of rural revitalization,and rural revitalization is the promotion of poverty alleviation.The organic linkage between the two is the top priority in launching the second centenary goal.The spatial differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of rural poverty in 129 counties of Yunnan province are analyzed from 2012 to 2018,using spatial autocorrelation,GWR model and so on.Results show that:the rural poverty in Yunnan province has deep concentration degree,and the geographical spatial difference is great,but the overall poverty degree has decreased.County poverty has strong spatial agglomeration.H-H group is mainly concentrated in the hot spots in northwest,southwest and northeast of Yunnan,such as Fugong county,Weixi county,Yongshan county and Lyuchun county,while poverty incidence L-L group is mainly concentrated in the cold spots in central and eastern Yunnan,such as Panlong district,Xishan district and Hongta district.Through GWR model calculation,it is found that the per capita savings of residents and the financial self-sufficiency rate have the most significant positive impact on the spatial impoverishment of rural areas in Yunnan province,and the positive impact of the grain output per unit area is relatively significant.However,the negative impact of urbanization rate and population density is relatively significant,followed by the negative impact of rural residents′disposable income,and the negative impact of per capita GDP is weak relatively.