航空器逆向滑行冲突风险评估模型

Risk assessment model of aircraft opposite taxiing conflict

为保障机场场面运行安全,及时探测逆向冲突行为,构建航空器滑行逆向冲突评估模型。该模型抽象机场场面运行程序和航空器动态滑行过程,综合考虑逆向滑行段长度、喷流范围等要素后定义冲突区域;基于实时速度、距离量化滑行冲突风险,模拟仿真计算,研究表明:该模型可量化评估具有对头运动趋势的匀速、变速滑行的航空器冲突风险,冲突风险值与逆向滑行段长度成正比,与航空器速度、位置差成反比。利用历史滑行轨迹验证,结果表明:该模型能够提前预判冲突趋势,与实际运行情况相符。

In order to ensure safety of airport operation and detect opposite conflict behavior in time,an assessment model of opposite taxiing conflict was proposed. Airport operation procedure and dynamic taxiing process were abstracted,and conflict areas were defined with an integrated consideration of taxi section,jet range and other factors. Then,conflict risks were quantified and simulated based on real-time speed and distance. The results show that this model could quantitatively assess conflict risk of aircraft at both uniform and variable speed with head-to-head motion trend,and its risk value is proportional to length of opposite taxiing section,and inversely proportional to difference of aircraft’s velocity and position. It is found that the model can predict conflict trend in advance which proves to be consistent with actual situation.