自然灾害次生事故隐患空间网络研究

Study on space network of potential secondary accidents of natural disasters

为探究自然灾害次生事故隐患与承灾体设防的关系,提出自然灾害次生事故隐患空间网络的概念。基于因素空间理论,考虑自然灾害次生事故隐患因素,给出隐患空间网络的定义,使用承灾体、承灾体指标、隐患、事故间的关系描述次生事故隐患的演化过程,建立自然灾害次生事故隐患空间网络,给出隐患模式库与事故模式库,提出自然灾害次生事故隐患分析方法,得出自然灾害次生煤矿的隐患、事故、隐患模式、事故模式,建立追溯机制。研究结果表明:消除隐患、预防自然灾害次生事故发生的整改对象可精确到承灾体指标,有助于自然灾害次生事故隐患的精准治理。

In order to study relationship between potential secondary accidents of natural disasters and disaster bearing bodies'defense,concept of spatial network of secondary accidents was proposed.Firstly,definition of the network was given based on theory of factor space considering factors of potential accidents,and evolution process of these accidents were described by using relationship between disaster bearing body,disaster bearing body index,hidden danger and accidents.Then,the spatial network was established,and hidden danger model library and accident model library were provided.Finally,analysis method of potential secondary accidents were proposed,secondary hidden danger,accident,hidden danger mode and accident mode of coal mines were obtained,and tracing mechanism was established.The results show that rectification object of eliminating hidden danger and preventing secondary accidents is accurate to disaster bearing body index,which provides a new method for study of secondary accidents caused by natural disasters.