中国独生子女生育意愿研究——基于生育代际传递视角

A Study on the Fertility Intention of Only Children in China:Based on Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility

中国低生育水平现状受到社会各界的广泛关注,生育水平是关系到中国经济、社会和家庭发展的重大问题。本文聚焦于中国独生子女的生育意愿,探讨中国家庭低生育模式的代际传递效应及作用机制,为目前低生育水平成因提供了一个新的理论解释。研究发现,独生子女中有22.73%生育意愿为1个及以下。独生子女的生育意愿显著低于非独生子女,独生子女在原生家庭的影响下倾向于保持低生育模式。独生子女身份对生育意愿的影响因性别、户籍和出生世代的不同存在差异,女性、农村户籍的独生子女受到的影响更大,并且随着出生世代的推移其影响呈现递增的趋势。文章进一步验证了家庭社会化、社会经济地位的代际传递是独生子女低生育意愿的重要形成机制。

The current situation of low fertility level in China has been widely concerned by all sectors of society.Fertility level is an important issue related to the development of China’s economy,society and family.This paper focuses on the fertility intention of the only child in China,discusses the intergenerational transmission effect and mechanism of the low fertility in Chinese families,and provides a new theoretical explanation for the cause of the current low fertility level.The study found that 22.73%of the only children had a fertility intention of one or less.The fertility intention of the only children was significantly lower than that of the non-only children,who tended to maintain a low fertility pattern under the influence of their family of origin.The influence of only child status on fertility intention varies with gender,household registration and birth generation.The influence of only child status on female and rural only child is more significant,and presents an increasing trend with the passage of birth generation.This paper further verifies that family socialization and intergenerational transmission of social and economic status are the important forming mechanisms of low fertility intention of only children.