货币政策量价工具的房地产市场效应分析

Real Estate Market Effects of Quantitative and Priced Monetary Policy

基于国房景气指数对中国房地产市场进行收缩期和扩张期划分,据此运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型分析中国货币政策对不同阶段房地产市场发展的动态调控效应。结果表明:房地产市场的阶段性特征较好地印证了中国宏观经济的基本面特征及房地产市场的政策颁布和落实情况,但也存在房地产市场响应的理性“毗邻”错位现象;无论是房地产市场收缩期抑或是房地产市场扩张期,数量型货币政策的调控效果均优于价格型货币政策,存在房地产市场调控多指标“占优”选择,但货币政策量价工具的房地产市场调控效果差距不大;价格型工具的房地产市场调控效果逐步优于数量型工具,其调控地位正在逐步凸显。

This paper makes the real estate market be divided into contraction period and expansion period based on China’s real estate climate index(CRECI),and then uses the SV-TVP-FAVAR model to analyze dynamic regulation effects of China’s monetary policy on the real estate market at different stages.The results show that stage characteristics of China’s real estate market confirm fundamental macro economy and the promulgation and implementation of real estate policies,but there may be rational“adjacent”dislocation.Whether contraction period or expansion period,the quantitative monetary policy has better regulation effect than the priced monetary policy.The quantitative monetary policy is a"dominant"choice under the multi-indicator of the real estate market regulation effects.However,the difference between the two policies is little.Priced monetary policy is gradually better than the quantitative monetary policy,and its regulatory status is gradually becoming prominent.