分析师预测质量会影响企业债务期限结构吗?——基于债权人的视角

Does Analyst Forecast Quality Affect Maturity Structure of Company Debt?Based on the Perspective of Creditors

以2007—2018年我国A股非金融行业上市公司数据为样本,深入考察了分析师预测质量对企业债务期限结构的影响,以及审计质量和机构投资者持股对二者关系的调节作用。研究发现,分析师预测质量与企业债务期限结构显著正相关,高的审计质量和机构投资者持股削弱了分析师预测质量与企业债务期限结构的正相关关系,分析师预测质量通过企业信息环境这一中间机制影响债务期限结构。研究表明,分析师预测质量传递了有关企业信息环境优劣的信号,债权人可以以之为参考进行债务期限决策,阐明了在信贷资源配置中分析师预测质量所发挥的重要作用,对深化债权人信贷期限决策、防控金融风险具有重要启示。

Taking data of non-financial Chinese A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2018 as samples,this paper makes an in-depth study of influence of analysts’forecast quality on corporate debt maturity structure,and moderating effect of audit quality and institutional investors’shareholding on relationship between them.It has found that quality of analyst forecast is significantly positively correlated with maturity structure of corporate debt.High audit quality and institutional investor shareholding weaken positive correlation between the quality of analyst forecast and corporate debt maturity structure.The quality of analyst forecast affects the debt maturity structure through information environment of the enterprise as an intermediate mechanism.Studies have shown that the quality of analyst forecast conveys the signal about the quality of enterprise information environment,which can be used for creditors as a reference for decision-making of debt maturity.It clarifies the important role of analyst forecast quality in resources allocation,and has important enlightenment for deepening of creditor credit term decisions,preventing and controlling financial risks.