生态背景下林业与林业旅游的耦合协调及动态关系——以广东为例

The relationship between forestry and forestry tourism under the background of ecological construction——A case of Guangdong

为丰富林业产业化发展理论,利用2008—2017年的广东林业统计数据,结合熵权与耦合协调度模型,计算广东省林业与林业旅游的耦合协调度,再利用Eviews 8.0进行ADF检验、回归方程分析、Granger因果检验分析。结果显示:广东林业旅游人次增长较快,但林业旅游收入增幅较小,发展林业旅游使林业总产值变化较小,广东林业旅游收入在林业总产值中占比仍低于当前林业第一、第二产业;广东林业、林业旅游的耦合协调度在2011年前小于0.5,两者耦合协调度为失调型,2011年达到0.709,进入中级协调序列,之后逐步提升,2016年进入优质协调阶段;在滞后第1、2期,广东林业发展水平每增长1%,林业旅游将增长1.203%,林业对当前林业旅游影响显著,而林业旅游对林业影响却不显著;针对上述结果与分析提出广东省生态林业建设和林业旅游发展相关建议。

In order to enrich the theory of forestry industrialization development,by using the statistical data of Guangdong forestry from 2008 to 2017,combined with entropy weight and coupling coordination degree model,the coupling coordination scheduling of Guangdong forestry and forestry tourism was calculated,and then the ADF test,regression equation analysis and Granger causality test were carried out by using Eviews 8.0.The results show that the number of forestry tourists in Guangdong increases rapidly,but the growth rate of forestry tourism income is small.The development of forestry tourism makes the total output value of forestry change little,and the proportion of forestry tourism income in the total output value of forestry in Guangdong is still lower than that of the current forestry primary and secondary industries;The coupling coordination degree of Guangdong forestry and forestry tourism is less than 0.5 before 2011,and the coupling coordination degree is maladjusted.It reached 0.709 in 2011,entering the intermediate coordination sequence,then gradually improved,entering the high-quality coordination stage in 2016;In the lag phase 1 and 2,forestry tourism will increase by 1.203%for every 1%increase of forestry development level in Guangdong.Forestry has a significant impact on the current forestry tourism,but forestry tourism has no significant impact on forestry.According to the above results and analysis,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the construction of ecological forestry and the development of forestry tourism in Guangdong Province.