我国物流产业经济增长、能源消耗与碳排放的动态关系研究--基于VAR模型的计量分析

Study on the Relationship between Carbon Emission and Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the Logistics Industry:Based on the Quantitative Analysis of VAR Model

文章选取我国物流业2001-2019年的时间序列数据,对我国物流业碳排放量进行测算,构建我国物流产业经济增长、能源消耗与碳排放的VAR模型,运用约翰森协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和方差分解分析等方法,考察三者之间的作用机理。研究结果显示:物流产业经济增长是碳排放的格兰杰原因,但反之并不成立,物流产业经济增长与能源消耗之间是双向互动、互为增长的。最后文章提出我国物流产业实施节能减排,实现“低能耗、低污染、低排放”目标的举措和路径。

This paper selects the data from 2001-2018 to calculate the carbon emissions of logistics industry in China,constructs the VAR model of logistics industry growth,energy consumption and carbon emissions in China,and examines the interaction mechanism between them by using Johansen cointegration test,Granger causality test,and variance decomposition.According to the research results,the growth of logistics industry is the Granger cause of carbon emission,but the reverse is not true.Finally,the paper puts forward the policy suggestions of energy saving and emission reduction and developing low-carbon logistics in China.