基于VAR模型的福建省旅游业对经济增长影响研究

Studies on the Influence of Tourism on Economic Growth in Fujian Province Based on VAR Model

为研究福建省旅游业发展与经济增长之间的影响机制,选取有关指标,以1997—2019年的面板数据为研究对象,采用向量自回归(VAR)模型进行实证研究。研究表明两者之间短期能够产生强劲的正向交互影响。从短期来看,入境旅游人数比国内旅游人数更能产生对经济增长的极速影响。但是,通过长期的响应研究发现,经济增长对旅游业的脉冲响应是螺旋式的,正向与负向的反馈作用交替并存,福建省旅游业存在一定的“资源诅咒”风险。最后,从多方面提出降低“荷兰病”风险,促进旅游业提质增效与区域经济高质量发展的对策。

In order to study the influencing mechanism between tourism development and economic growth in Fujian Province,this paper selects relevant indicators from 1997 to 2019 and adopts Vector Auto Regression(VAR)model to conduct empirical research.The research shows that there is a strong positive interaction between them in the short term.It seems that inbound tourism has a faster impact on economic growth than domestic tourism in a short run.However,after the long-term response study,it is found that the impulse response of economic growth to tourism is spiral,and positive and negative feedback coexist alternately.There is a certain risk of"resource curse"in tourism industry in Fujian Province.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to reduce the risk of"Dutch disease"and promote the quality and efficiency of tourism and the high-quality development of regional economy.