贸易政策的行业工资变动效应:基于关税和汇率的视角

The Effect of Trade Policies on Industry-level Wage Changes in China from Tariffs and Exchange Rates Perspectives

本文主要考察中国在2001年底正式加入世界贸易组织及2006年推行人民币汇率定价改革后的关税和汇率的变动对行业工资水平的影响。基于Fujita等的FKV模型,本文通过引入贸易成本和产业聚集度因素,基于2003—2016年中国31个省份19个行业的面板数据,对行业工资水平的影响因素展开实证分析。研究发现,入世后关税水平的下降提高了中国的行业工资水平,而汇率定价机制改革后,人民币实际汇率的升值对行业工资水平的上升带来了抑制性影响。虽然关税和汇率与产业集聚程度的交互项并未对行业的工资水平产生显著影响,但中国关税与汇率的变化对行业工资水平的影响与两类行业特征(垄断性特征、高新技术特征)以及三类地区特征(教育发展水平、基础设施建设水平、对外开放程度)的异质性有关。

This paper mainly examines the effects of changes in China's tariffs after the accession to the World Trade Organization at the end of 2001 and in exchange rates after the reform of the RMB exchange rate in 2006 on industry-level wages.Based on the FKV model of Fujita et al.and by introducing trade cost and industry aggregation factors,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of trade policy on China's industry-level wages distribution by adopting panel data of 19 industries in China's 31 provinces from 2003 to 2016.The study finds that the reduction in tariffs after China's accession to the WTO increases China's industry-level wages and the appreciation of the RMB real exchange rate after the reform of the exchange rate pricing mechanism decreases China's industry-level wages.The interactions of tariffs and exchange rates with the level of industrial agglomeration do not have a significant impact on the industry-level wages,but the effects of changes in China's tariffs and exchange rates on the industry-level wages are related to two types of industrial characteristics,i.e.,monopoly and high-technology,and are related to three types of regional characteristics,i.e.,the level of regional education,infrastructure construction and trade openness.