长江中游城市群住宅市场健康度时空演变研究

Spatial-temporal Heterogeneity of Real Estate Market Health in Urban Agglomeration in Middle Reaches of Yangtze River

房地产业作为国民经济发展的支柱性产业,关系到国家经济的发展和社会的稳定。住宅地产作为房地产业的重要组成部分,直接关系到居民的幸福感与社会和谐,准确研判住宅市场发展特征尤为必要。本文从经济协调、供需平衡、投资适度和土地节制四方面构建评价体系,对长江中游城市群2010—2018年住宅市场健康度进行评价,并探究住宅市场健康度的时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)在时间上,研究期内长江中游城市群住宅市场健康度在波动中趋好,经济协调、供需平衡、投资适度、土地节制的健康系数在波动中保持下降,子城市群(圈)的住宅市场运行状况均朝正向发展。(2)在空间上,长江中游城市群住宅市场健康度空间演化分异显著,表现出较为强烈的以武汉、长沙、南昌三大中心城市为中心的“核心-边缘”结构特征,武汉城市圈为住宅市场发展不健康的重灾区。(3)长江中游城市群住宅市场健康度可分为协调发展型(Ⅰ类)、经济偏离型(Ⅱ类型)、供需失衡型(Ⅲ类)、投资过度型(Ⅳ类)、土地依托型(Ⅴ类)五类,研究期末各研究单元占比分别为38.7%、3.3%、9.6%、22.5%和25.9%,房地产投资过度、高土地财政化渐趋明显,需要坚持“房住不炒”、因城施策的调控政策,促进住宅市场平稳健康发展。

As a pillar industry in the entire national economic system,real estate bears heavily on the entire national economic growth and social stability.Thus,it is particularly necessary to accurately study and judge the characteristics of real estate market development.This paper constructs an evaluation system from four aspects:economic coordination,supply and demand balance,moderate investment and land control,evaluates the health of the real estate market in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River-urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2018,and explores the spatial-temporal heterogeneity characteristics of the health of the real estate market.The results show that:1) In terms of time,the health of the real estate market of cities in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River tends to be better in the fluctuation period,as evidenced by coordinated conomic development,balanced supply and demand,moderate investment,decreasing land control in the fluctuation period and positive development of the real estate market in sub-city circles.2) In terms of space,there are significant differences in the spatial evolution of the health of the real estate market in the city clusters in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,showing a strong "core-periphery" structure with Wuhan,Changsha and Nanchang as the center.Wuhan urban circle has become the worst-hit area for the unhealthy development of the real estate market.3) health degree of the real estate market of cities in the middle reach of Yangtze river can be divided into five types:coordinated development(type Ⅰ),economic deviation(type Ⅱ),imbalanced supply and demand(class Ⅲ),excessive investment(class Ⅳ) and land dependence(Ⅴ).The five types have a weight of 38.7%,3.3%,9.6%,22.5% and 25.9% respectively by the end of the study,showing that the real estate investment is excessive,and financial dependance on land is obvious.Therefore,it is important to adhere to the policy of "housing residence instead of vicious speculation" and take control measures commensurate with specific cities to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.