基于回购担保的供应链上关联信用风险传染及外溢效应

Contagion and Spillover Effects of Associated Credit Risk in Supply Chain Based on Buy-back Guarantee

本文在回购担保情境下,基于双重Stackelberg博弈,在对单一供应商和零售商组成的二级供应链上关联信用风险传染机理进行深入分析基础上,构建了供应链上关联信用风险传染效应基础模型以及外溢效应衍生模型,并以数值分析进行了验证后发现:供应链上关联信用风险的传染效应具有触发阈值,且当传染效应产生时,回购率、贷款利率和生产成本正向影响传染效应;而产品价格则负向影响传染效应。另一方面,回购率弱化了关联信用风险的正向外溢效应。本文的研究对供应链企业和贷款机构风险管控具有重要的理论和现实意义。

In the buy-back guarantee situation,this paper adopts dual Stackelberg game,on the basis of analyzing the contagion mechanism of associated credit risk in a two echelon supply chain composed of a supplier and a retailer,constructs the basic model and derivative model to study the internal contagion and spillover effects of associated credit risk in the supply chain.Numerical analysis results show that contagion effect of associated credit risk in supply chain has trigger thresholds,and when contagion effect occurs,buy-back rate,loan interest rates and production cost have a positive impact on the contagion effects;while the market price of products has a negative impact on the contagion effect.On the other hand,buy-back rate weakens the positive spillover effect of associated credit risk.The research of this paper has important theoretical and practical significance for risk control of supply chain enterprises and loan institutions.