贸易失衡引致了“逆全球化”吗——基于增加值贸易视角

The Trade Imbalance Caused Anti-globalization——Based on the Perspective of Trade in Value Added

中美贸易摩擦深化引发学者们对"逆全球化"原因的思考。本文基于世界投入产出数据库2000—2014年数据,从增加值视角构建贸易利益指数,并结合苏黎世联邦理工学院经济研究所的全球化指数,研究贸易失衡对全球化进程的影响。研究表明:(1)总体来看,一国贸易利益受损是其"逆全球化"行为的重要动因。(2)贸易失衡会影响国家间的贸易政策、政治行为以及金融活动,进而导致"逆全球化"。(3)当面临贸易利益受损时,发达国家倾向于采取政治手段来保护自身利益,而发展中国家更多采取经济政策。本文为我国积极参与多边贸易体制下的全球治理提出政策建议。

The increasing of Sino-US trade frictions has caused scholars’ discussions about the reasons for "Anti-globalization". Based on the data from 2000 to 2014 on the World Input and Output Database,this paper discusses the impacts of trade imbalances on the process of globalization by constructing the Trade Balance Index from the perspective of value added and referring to the KOF Globalization Index from the Swiss Economic Institute. Studies have shown that:( 1) In general,the damage to a country’ s trade interests is an important motive for "Anti-globalization"behavior.( 2) Trade imbalances will affect trade practices, political actions and financial activities among countries, leading to"Anti-globalization".( 3) When faced with the damage to trade interests,developed countries tend to adopt political moves to protect their own interests,while developing countries tend to adopt economic policies. This paper provides policy recommendations for China’ s active participation in global governance under the multilateral trading system.