全球制造业贸易中“全球化效应”评估:国内贸易成本因素的影响

The Evaluation of Globalization Effect in Global Manufacturing Trade:the Impact of Domestic Trade Cost

量化评估"全球化效应"是贸易研究领域亟待突破的重要现实问题。在包含"时变距离变量"的结构引力模型中纳入国内贸易成本因素以全面考量"全球化"对跨国贸易成本和国内贸易成本的影响,使用时变距离效应估计系数的变化率(即"距离效应变化率")捕捉1997—2018年期间全球化对全球具有较强工业竞争力的国家之间制造业贸易增长的影响。结论表明,在引力模型贸易效应估计中引入国内贸易成本因素是解决"距离之谜"的关键,能够更为准确地捕捉全球制造业贸易中的"全球化效应";全球制造业贸易中的"全球化效应"具有明显的行业和国家异质性,其中行业视角下的经验估计揭示了2008年金融危机后全球化"慢化"的趋势,国家视角下的经验估计揭示了金融危机后全球化效应的逆转、深化、慢化、显现等四种不同的发展趋势。

Quantitative evaluation of Globalization Effect is an important practical problem in international trade research.The author introduces the domestic trade cost into the structural gravity model with time-varying distance variable,and fully considers the impact of Globalization on transnational trade cost and domestic trade cost. The change rate of dynamic distance effect estimation coefficient is used to capture the impact of Globalization on the manufacturing trade among countries with strong industrial competitiveness and the heterogeneous impact on different countries during 1997—2018. It is found that,the introducing domestic trade cost in trade effect estimation based on gravity model is the key to solve the problem of"distance puzzle",and it can more accurately capture the Globalization Effect in global manufacturing trade. The Globalization Effect in global manufacturing trade is quite different in industries and countries;from the angle of the whole industry,empirical estimation demonstrates the slowdown trend of globalization after the 2008 financial crisis;and from the angle of country,the empirical estimation demonstrates four different development trend of Globalization Effect,namely the reverse,deepened,slowdown and emerging one.