环境规制对粤西农业绿色全要素生产率的门槛效应分析

Study on the Influence of Environmental Regulations on the Growth of Green Total Factor Productivity in Agriculture in Western Guangdong Province

环境资源日益制约着农业经济发展,在粤西地区坚持走绿色农业发展道路的背景下,测算粤西农业绿色全要素生产率及探讨环境规制强度对农业绿色全要素生产率的门槛效应具有现实意义。文章通过DEA-Malmquist指数测算1994年至2018年粤西4市的农业绿色全要素生产率并剖析其时空分布演进特征,并在测算结果基础上构建面板门槛回归模型探讨环境规制强度对农业绿色全要素生产率的影响。研究发现1994至2018年粤西农业绿色全要素生产率总体处于较高水平,具有较强的空间差异性和较大的波动特征;粤西环境规制强度的“绿色悖论效应”强于“倒逼减排效应”,环境规制强度对农业绿色全要素生产率影响具有双门槛效应,“绿色悖论效应”随着环境规制强度先上升后下降,即环境规制对农业绿色全要素生产率的负向影响边际递增,但跨越一定的门槛值后,环境规制对农业绿色全要素生产率的负向影响呈现出边际递减的特征。

Under the background that environmental resources are increasingly restricting the development of agricultural economy and the western Guangdong region insists on the road of green agricultural development,it is of practical significance to measure the green total factor productivity of agriculture in western Guangdong and discuss the threshold effect of environmental regulation intensity on the green total factor productivity of agriculture.Based on the DEA-Malmquist index,this article estimates the agricultural green total factor productivity of four cities in western Guangdong from 1994 to 2018,analyzes its spatial and temporal distribution evolution characteristics,and constructs a panel threshold regression model to explore the impact of environmental regulation intensity on the agricultural green total factor productivity.The results show that the agricultural green total factor productivity of western Guangdong is at a high level from 1994 to 2018,with strong spatial differences and large fluctuations.The“green paradox effect”of the environmental regulation intensity in western Guangdong is stronger than the“forced emission reduction effect”.The impact of environmental regulation intensity on agricultural green total factor productivity has a double threshold effect.The“green paradox effect”increases first and then decreases with the increase of environmental regulation intensity,that is,the marginal negative impact of environmental regulations on agricultural green total factor productivity increases,but after a certain threshold value is exceeded,the negative impact of environmental regulations the on agricultural green total factor productivity is characterized by marginal decline.