中国人民银行货币存款准备金政策的效果分析——新冠疫情背景下基于VAR模型的实证分析

An Analysis of the Effect of the Monetary Reserve Policy of the People's Bank of China--Empirical Analysis of COVID-19 Based on VAR Model

由于新冠疫情的突然爆发,我国经济受到了前所未有的冲击,为了应对这场冲击,中国人民银行充分发挥宏观调控的作用,根据"把时间抢回来,把损失补回来"的方针政策积极履行职能。本文实证分析了中国人民银行施行的存款准备金政策的有效性,利用VAR模型,最终得出结论,固定资产投资额对房地产价格的传导性较高,且固定资产投资额的增长有较为积极的作用。建议央行在应对此类重大突发事件时,应精准施策、对症下药,同时注意和控制政策持续的时间。

The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has dealt an unprecedented blow to China's economy.In order to cope with the impact,the People's Bank of China(PBOC)has fully played the role of macro-control and actively performed its functions according to the policy of"seizing time and making up for losses".This paper empirically analyzes the effectiveness of the deposit reserve policy implemented by the PBOC,and finally draws a conclusion by using the VAR model that the fixed asset investment has a great impact on the price of real estate,and the growth of the fixed asset investment has a relatively positive effect.It is suggested that the central bank should take precise measures to deal with such major emergencies,and pay attention to and control the duration of the policies.