气温对亚热带季风气候内陆城市登革热传播的影响

Effects of temperature on dengue fever transmission in inland city with subtropical monsoon climate

目的以江西省樟树市为例探究气温对登革热传播的影响,为亚热带季风气候内陆城市登革热监测预警提供理论依据。方法收集樟树市2019年本地感染登革热病例及同时期气温数据,利用核密度分析、标准差椭圆、交叉相关分析等方法分析了登革热时空变化及其与气温因子的关系。结果樟树市登革热发病具有明显的时空分异特征。从时间上看,2019年8—9月登革热发病数先升高后降低,在8月29日达到峰值,日新增病例为64例。随后新增病例开始减少,9月11日以后无新增病例。从空间上看,人口密集、卫生条件相对较差的老城区(淦阳街道、鹿江街道及福成街道)登革热病例密度最高,而随着与市中心城区距离的增大登革热病例密度逐渐递减,登革热有从中心城区向周边区域辐射的趋势,主要向东北和西南方向扩散。相关分析显示,登革热病例数与最高气温、积温呈正相关关系,并存在明显的滞后效应,以滞后5~10 d,滑动平均7~10 d的相关性最高。登革热病例扩散率与最高气温、最低气温以及积温均呈正相关关系,但未见明显的滞后效应。结论气温对登革热的传播与扩散有重要影响,及时掌握最高气温、最低气温、积温的变化趋势,尽早采取措施是登革热防控的关键。

Objective Taking Zhangshu, Jiangxi as a case to explore the impact of temperature on the spread of dengue fever, and we provide a theoretical basis for monitoring and early warning of dengue fever in inland city with subtropical monsoon climate.Methods The data of local dengue fever cases and the corresponding temperatures in 2019 were collected,and using nuclear density analysis, standard deviation ellipse and cross correlation analysis to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of dengue fever and the relationships with temperature.Results Spatial and temporal variation characteristics were observed obviously in the local dengue fever cases of Zhangshu city. On the view of time-scale, the amounts of dengue fever cases increased first and then decreased from August to September 2019, peaked at August 29, the daily new cases were 64.Then, the new cases decreased, and no new cases have been reported since September 11. On the view of spatial scale, the dengue fever cases gathered in the old urban areas with dense population and relatively poor sanitary conditions, including Ganyang, Lujiang, and Fucheng streets;and the cases gradually decreased with the increase of the distance from the central urban area, indicating the dengue fever spreads from the central urban area toward the surrounding areas, mainly to the northeast and southwest. Correlation analysis showed that the dengue fever cases positively correlated with maximum temperature and accumulated temperature, a lat effect of 5-10 d and the moving average of 7-10 d had the strongest correlation. The diffusion rate of dengue fever was positively correlated with maximum temperature, minimum temperature and accumulated temperature, however no lag effect was observed.Conclusion Temperature factors play an important role on the transmission of dengue fever, the key to control dengue fever is to grasp the trends of temperature factors(maximum temperature, minimum temperature and accumulated temperature) in time, and then take measures as soon as possible.