中国国内旅游市场复苏研究:潜力评估与对策建议

Research on the recovery of China′s domestic tourism market:assessment and suggestions

面对深受新冠疫情冲击的旅游市场,科学研判其复苏潜力、探索复苏之路是当务之急。以中国国内旅游市场为研究对象,从经济学的市场周期理论出发,采用市场弹性测算方法考察重要假日旅游市场表现与国内旅游市场之间的关系,对2021年上半年和全年中国国内旅游市场复苏趋势进行预测,并从旅游公共政策安排、旅游企业能动性、旅游行业协会桥梁作用等角度对影响旅游业复苏的因素加以分析。建议加强疫情防控的精细化管理、锚定旅游市场复苏的新契机和新需求实现创新发展、灵活配置和运用政策工具箱,从而为市场复苏提供有效支持。

A pressing matter of the moment is that the scientific research of tourism market′s potential and the path of recovery in the face of COVID-19′s impact.The relationship between the performance of important holiday tourism market and the whole domestic tourism market for China are studied by using the elasticity approach based on the Business Cycle Theory in economics.The recovery trend of China′s domestic tourism market in the first half and the whole year of 2021 is forecasted and the factors influencing the recovery of tourism industry are analyzed from perspectives of public policy,enterprises′initiative and the role of industry association as a bridge in the field of tourism.The suggestions are put forward,that is,prevention and control of the epidemic situation should be lean formula management;innovation-driven development should anchor new opportunities and demands for the recovery of tourism market;policy toolkit should be arranged and utilized more flexibly,which will in turn support the market recovery effectively.