长江经济带政府林业投资对森林生态的门槛效应研究

Threshold Effect of Government Forestry Investment on Forest Ecology:Taking the Yangtze River Economic Zone as an Example

在文献回顾的基础上,梳理与构建了政府林业投资对森林生态影响的传导机制。基于Hansen面板门槛回归模型,利用长江经济带11省市2002—2017年的面板数据,实证分析了政府林业投资对森林生态发展的非线性发展关系。研究表明:政府林业投资导致了林业产业升级与生产要素的重新配置,对森林生态具有显著的门槛效应。从总体上看,在研究期内全流域的林业政府投资有效提高了当地森林生态的发展水平,但随着投资规模的不断扩大,由此带来的正向促进效应递减。东部省市随着政府林业投资规模的不断扩大,对森林生态由负向抑制效应变为正向促进效应递减;而中部、西部地区随着政府投资规模不断增加,对森林生态由负向抑制效应变为正向促进效应并逐渐递增。

On the basis of literature review,this paper cards and constructs the transmission mechanism of the impact of government forestry investment on forest ecology.Based on Hansen panel threshold regression model,panel data of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2002 to 2017 were used to empirically analyze the nonlinear development relationship between government forestry investment in the river basin and forest ecological development.The results show that:the government’s forestry investment leads to the upgrading of forestry industry and the reallocation of production factors,which has a significant threshold effect on forest ecology.On the whole,the forestry government investment in the whole basin during the study period effectively improved the development level of local forest ecology,but with the continuous expansion of the investment scale,the positive promoting effect is decreasing.With the continuous expansion of government investment in forestry,eastern provinces and cities have changed from negative inhibition effect to positive promotion effect,but the effect is diminishing.However,in the central and western regions with the increasing scale of government investment,the negative inhibiting effect on forest ecology has turned into the positive promoting effect and then gradually increased.