资源利用—生态环境—经济增长耦合协调发展分析与预测——以丝绸之路经济带沿线省份为例

Analysis and Prediction of the Coupled and Coordinated Development of Resource Utilization-Ecological Environment-Economic Growth:A Case Study of Provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt

以丝绸之路经济带沿线15个省份为例,构建资源利用—生态环境—经济增长系统(REE系统)耦合协调度评价指标体系,并借助ArcGIS对2008—2018年REE系统耦合协调水平进行时空演化格局分析,运用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测REE系统耦合协调度发展趋势。结果表明:(1)资源利用子系统发展水平近年来增速较快,生态环境子系统经历了先下降后增长的趋势,经济增长子系统的时间阶段性明显;(2)REE系统耦合度和耦合协调度均值皆呈现波动上升态势,耦合度整体水平较高且分布不均,耦合协调度整体水平不高且梯度差异显著;(3)预测结果显示REE系统耦合协调度未来3年发展大致延续前11年的上升态势,整体耦合协调度达到0.915 5,各省份演进差异明显。

Taking 15 provinces along the Silk Road Economic Belt as examples,this paper constructed an evaluation index system of resource utilization-ecological environment-economic (REE system) coupling coordination degree,analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of REE system coupling coordination level from 2008 to 2018 with the help of ArcGIS,and predicted the development trend of REE system coupling coordination degree with the use of GM (1,1) grey model.The results show that:(1) The development level of the resource utilization subsystem has increased rapidly in recent years,the ecological environment subsystem experienced a trend of decreasing first and then increasing,and the economic growth subsystem has an obvious time stage;(2) The mean value of coupling degree and coupling coordination degree of REE system showed a fluctuating upward trend.The coupling degree was relatively high and unevenly distributed,while the coupling degree was not high and the gradient difference was significant;(3) The prediction results show that the coupling coordination degree of REE system will continue the upward trend of the previous 11 years in the next three years,and the overall coupling coordination degree will reach 0.915 5,and the evolution of each province is obviously different.