内陆干旱区资源环境承载力预警评价与模拟分析——来自宁夏的实证分析

Early Warning Evaluation and Simulation Analysis of Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity in Inland Arid Regions:An Empirical Analysis from Ningxia

科学构建资源环境承载力预警机制,是内陆干旱区深入推进生态文明建设和高质量发展的关键。以该区域宁夏为例,从资源承载力(RC)、环境承载力(EC)和经济社会支持力(ESS)三个维度构建内陆干旱区资源环境承载力预警指标体系。综合运用熵权TOPSIS模型和BP神经网络(BPANN),定量测度2010—2019年宁夏资源环境承载力警情变化特征及未来3年演变趋势,并借助障碍度模型对其制约因素进行探究。结果表明:从时序角度看,2010—2019年,宁夏资源环境承载力整体提升明显,各子系统熵权TOPSIS值均呈上升状态,警情趋缓,警度下跌,且2020—2022年各系统发展趋势向好;从障碍因素角度看,制约宁夏资源环境承载力的障碍因素主要来自RC与EC系统。最后,基于评价及预警结果,提出相应的建议。

Scientific construction of resources and environment carrying capacity monitoring and early warning mechanism is the key to promoting deeply ecological civilization construction and high-quality development in inland arid areas.Taking Ningxia as a typical research area,the early warning index system for resources and environmental carrying capacity of inland arid regions is constructed from three dimensions,which are the resource carrying capacity (RC),the environmental carrying capacity (EC) and the economic and social support capacity (ESS).By comprehensive using entropy weight TOPSIS model and BP neural network (BPANN),this paper quantitatively measures the characteristics of the warning status of Ningxia’s resources and environmental carrying capacity from 2010 to 2019 and the evolution trend in the next three years,and probes into its restrictive factors with the help of obstacle model (Obstacle Degree Model).The results show that:From a time series perspective,from 2010 to 2019,the overall carrying capacity of Ningxia’s resources and environment has increased significantly,the entropy weight TOPSIS value of each subsystem has increased,the warning degree decreased and the development trend of each system in 2020-2022 is improving.From the perspective of obstacles,the obstacles restricting the carrying capacity of Ningxia’s resources and environment mainly come from the EC and RC systems.Finally,based on the evaluation and simulation results,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.