我国居民加杠杆对消费升级影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Household'Increasing Leverage on Consumption Upgrading in China

消费升级是拉动内需和高质量发展的重要引擎。近年来我国居民高速加杠杆,对居民消费行为产生了重要影响。利用2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查构成的面板数据,基于双向固定效应模型、面板分位数模型和面板门槛模型,实证检验我国居民加杠杆对消费升级的影响。研究发现:我国居民加杠杆会抑制消费性支出增长,导致恩格尔系数上升,不利于推动消费升级;居民加杠杆对消费升级处于中下水平的群体,抑制作用更明显;居民加杠杆对高杠杆变化居民和高房产占比居民的消费升级抑制作用更大。因此,应对当前居民高速加杠杆加以限制,提高低消费能力群体的收入。

consumption upgrading is an important engine to promote domestic demand and high-quality development.In recent years,the rapid increase of leverage of Chinese household has had an important impact on consumer behavior.Based on the panel data of China Family Panel Studies in 2016 and 2018,this paper empirically tests the impact of Chinese household'leverage on consumption upgrading based on the two-way fixed effect model,panel quantile model and panel threshold model.The results show that the increase of consumption expenditure will be restrained by the leverage of household,which leads to the increase of Engel coefficient and is not conducive to promoting the consumption upgrading.Household leverage has a more obvious inhibitory effect on the group whose consumption upgrade is at the lower level.It has a greater inhibitory effect on consumption upgrading of residents with high leverage and high property ratio.Therefore,the current high-speed leverage of household should be limited to improve the income of low consumption groups.