上海市社会消费品零售总额预测及发展对策研究

Forecast and Development Countermeasure of Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods in Shanghai

社会消费品零售总额是反映特定时期社会生产力及消费需求状况的重要指标,科学地预测社会消费品零售状况有利于准确把握消费趋势、推动消费升级。选取2011-2018年上海市社会消费品零售总额相关指标数据,基于灰色理论,运用GM(1,1)模型预测2019-2023年上海社会消费品零售总额状况。结果表明:总体来看,上海市社会消费品零售总额及构成在2019-2023年将继续保持稳定增长态势,但增速有所差异;从构成来看,批发零售业总额占比继续保持小幅上升,住宿餐饮业总额占比则有所下滑。基于以上分析提出对策建议。

Total retail sales of social consumer goods is an important index reflecting social productivity and consumption demand in a specific period.Scientific prediction of retail sales of social consumer goods is conducive to accurately grasping consumption trends and promoting consumption upgrading.This paper selects the relevant index data of total retail sales of social consumer goods in Shanghai from 2011 to 2018,and forecasts the total retail sales of social consumer goods in Shanghai from 2019 to 2023 based on grey theory and GM(1,1)model.The results show that:on the whole,the total retail sales and composition of social consumer goods in Shanghai will continue to maintain a steady growth trend from 2019 to 2023,but the growth rate is different;In terms of composition,the proportion of total wholesale and retail trade continued to increase slightly,while the proportion of total accommodation and catering industry declined.Based on the above analysis,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.