基于变权理论的城市道路交通风险评价

Urban Road Traffic Risk Assessment Model Based on Variable Weight Method

为进行城市的道路交通风险评估,选取了城市道路交通管理、城市道路条件、城市道路交通设施和城市道路环境四项评价指标,建立交通风险评价指标体系。通过将变权法结合模糊数学理论和AHP方法,对评价指标进行合理的赋值与无量纲化处理,再根据我国城市道路的实际状况,选取合适的状态变权函数,建立变权模糊综合评估模型,并将该模型应用于北京市三条城市道路风险评价中。通过计算该评估值与常权综合评价结果对比,验证了变权评估模型的优越性和合理性。

In order to carry out risk assessment of urban road traffic,the traffic risk evaluation index system was established by selecting four evaluation indexes of urban traffic accident rate,urban road conditions,urban traffic facilities and urban road environment.The variable weight method was combined with fuzzy mathematics theory and AHP method,and the evaluation indexes were reasonably assigned and dimensionless.According to the actual situation of urban roads in China,the appropriate state variable weight function was selected,and the variable weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was established,and then applied to the risk assessment of three roads in Beijing.The evaluation value calculated by variable weight method was superior and more reasonable than the comprehensive evaluation result of constant weight.