水资源承载力综合评价的组合权重⁃MNCM法

Combined weight⁃MNCM evaluation method for water resources carrying capacity

区域水资源承载力状态评价对于查明区域水资源现状从而保障区域社会、经济发展具有十分重要的意义.为科学、合理地评价区域水资源承载力状况,提出水资源承载力综合评价的组合权重?MNCM(Multidimensional Normal Cloud Model)法.首先,改进AGA-AHP(Accelerating Genetic Algorithm based Analytic Hierarchy Process)法以优化专家评价矩阵并确定主观权重,运用熵权法确定客观权重,应用组合权重公式得到评价指标的组合权重;其次,采用多维正态云模型法得到确定度;最后,对评价指标进行了障碍因子诊断.运用组合权重?MNCM法对江苏省水资源承载力进行评价,并与单一云模型法和AHP-TOPSIS(Analytic Hierarchy Process?Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)法进行对比.该评价方法考虑了评价过程中存在的模糊性和随机性,能够高效、直观地得到评价结果,并且诊断出指标的障碍度及其时间变化规律,可为水资源承载力评价方法提供新思路.

The evaluation of regional water resources carrying capacity is of great significance for finding out the current situation of regional water resources and ensuring regional social and economic development.In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the regional water resources carrying capacity,the combined weight?MNCM(Multidimensional Normal Cloud Model)evaluation method was proposed.Firstly,the AGA-AHP(Accelerating Genetic Algorithm based Analytic Hierarchy Process)method was improved to optimize the expert evaluation matrix and determine the subjective weight,the entropy weight method was used to determine the objective weight,and the combined weight formula was used to obtain the combined weight of the evaluation index.Secondly,the MNCM was adopted to obtain the degree of certainty.Finally,the obstacle degree of evaluation index was diagnosed.The combined weight?MNCM evaluation method was used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangsu province,and it was compared with the single cloud model method and the AHP?TOPSIS method.This evaluation method considers the fuzziness and randomness in the evaluation process,and can get the evaluation result efficiently and intuitively,and diagnose the obstacle degree of the index and its time change rule.The evaluation method can provide a new idea for the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity.