流入地进口冲击、流动人口子女留守与留守儿童教育

Import Shock of Inflow Places,the Left-behind Children of Floating Population and the Education of Left-behind Children

在主动扩大进口、加快形成全面开放新格局背景下,本文利用2011—2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,探讨了流入地进口冲击对当地流动人口子女留守决策的影响。研究发现:(1)总体来看,流入地进口扩张显著提升了该地区流动人口子女留守概率,流入地进口冲击每提高一个标准差导致流动人口家庭儿童留守的可能性提高0.4%。(2)由于城市教育资源的可获得性和农村"重男轻女"观念,学龄段儿童和女童留守受进口扩张的影响明显强于其他对应组别。从技能水平来看,进口扩张加剧了低技能劳动力家庭的儿童留守,对高技能劳动力家庭则没有显著影响,有固化人力资本代际流动的倾向。(3)机制检验表明,流入地进口冲击显著降低了当地流动人口的收入水平,为了应对负向的收入冲击,流动人口的劳动力供给增加,致使流动人口无法承担子女随迁的经济和时间成本,做出家庭调整,进而导致子女留守概率提高。此外,流动人口工作强度增加强化了二者之间的促进作用。(4)进口扩张显著降低了流动人口留守子女的辍学率,促进了留守儿童教育发展。

By using micro data from China Migrants Dynamics Survey 2011 to 2017,we employ Bartik approach to construct import shock of inflow places.The results show that import expansion of inflow places significantly increases the probability of the migrants’children to become left-behind children(LBC);import shock increase in one standard deviation raises the probability of migrants’children to become LBC by 0.4 percent.Due to insufficient urban education resource and conventional rural notion that"boys are more important than girls",effects of the regional import expansion on the LBC at school age group and girls are significantly stronger than other corresponding groups.There is also a skill bias effect:regional import expansion intensifies the possibility of LBC in household with low skilled labor,yet it has no significant effect on high skilled labor counterpart,which in turn likely to consolidate intergenerational flow of human capital.In terms of mechanism,regional import expansion contributes to children left at home phenomenon by decreasing migrant wages in which higher level of workload strengthens such effect.In addition,regional import expansion significantly reduces LBC dropout rate and promotes their education advancement.Our findings provide empirical support for China’s coordinated promotion of comprehensive openness and alleviation of targeted poverty of left behind children of floating population.