人工智能促进中国经济增长的机理——基于理论与实证研究

Theoretical and Empirical Research on the Mechanism of Artificial Intelligence Promoting China’s Economic Growth

人工智能是第四次工业革命的代表性技术,是推动经济增长的新动能。为了揭示人工智能促进经济增长的机理,首先从理论上加以系统阐述,然后采用2010—2018年中国省级面板数据对理论机理加以实证检验。理论与实证研究结果表明:人工智能既可以通过替代劳动要素、人机融合和人工智能产业链的扩展直接促进经济增长,也可以通过提升人力资本水平,提高技术创新效率、市场效率和政府治理效率间接地促进经济增长。实证研究结果还表明,相较于人工智能基础设施水平较低和人工智能人才缺乏的地区,在人工智能基础设施水平较高和人工智能人才充足的地区,人工智能促进经济增长的作用更加明显。根据研究结论,提出了发展中国的人工智能并利用人工智能促进中国经济增长的政策建议。

Artificial intelligence is a representative technology of the fourth industrial revolution and a new driving force for macroeconomic growth.In order to reveal the mechanism of artificial intelligence promoting economic growth,this article first systematically elaborates on theory,and then uses China’s provincial panel data from 2010 to 2018 to empirically test the theoretical mechanism.Theoretical and empirical research results show that artificial intelligence can not only directly promote economic growth through the substitution of labor elements,human-machine integration,and the development of the artificial intelligence industry chain,but also improve the efficiency of technological innovation,market efficiency and government governance through the improvement of human capital indirectly promote economic growth.The empirical research results further show that compared with areas with low levels of artificial intelligence infrastructure and lack of artificial intelligence talents,the role of artificial intelligence in promoting economic growth is more obvious in areas with high artificial intelligence infrastructure and sufficient artificial intelligence talents.Based on the research conclusions,this article proposes corresponding policy recommendations for promoting artificial intelligence to promote China’s economic growth.