中国生产性服务业与制造业共生模型及实证研究

The Symbiosis Model and Empirical Research on Producer Service Industry and Manufacturing Industry of China

在自然生态系统中,种群间对各种资源进行竞争,最终达到一种稳定共生的均衡状态。基于生态学的共生理论,在不考虑种群自身进化的影响下,构建受产业间共生作用和共生环境双重影响的Logistic生长模型,并通过数值仿真,模拟不同共生模式下生产性服务业和制造业的演化规律,最终测算共生寿命,揭示产业间达到稳定共生的时间趋势。结果表明:基于对共生作用系数的仿真模拟,对称互惠共生模式是所有共生模式的进化终点,是生产性服务业与制造业共生选择的最稳定最有效益的产业发展模式;基于共生度的测算,当前中国生产性服务业与制造业已经在很长一段时间内处于非对称互惠共生模式,但将在2040年左右过渡到对称互惠共生模式。

In the natural ecosystem,the populations compete for various resources,and finally reach a stable symbiosis equilibrium state.Based on the symbiosis theory of ecology,this paper constructs a Logistic growth model that is affected by the dual effects of inter-industry symbiosis and the symbiosis environment without considering the influence of the evolution of the population itself,and simulates the evolution law of producer services and manufacturing industry under different symbiosis modes through numerical simulation,finally measures the symbiosis life time and reveals the time trend of stable symbiosis among the industries.The results show that:based on the simulation of the symbiosis effect coefficient,the symmetric reciprocity symbiosis model is the evolution end point of all symbiosis models,and is the most stable and most profitable industrial development model for the symbiosis selection of the producer service industry and the manufacturing industry;based on the measurement of the degree of symbiosis,China’s producer service industry and manufacturing industry have been in an asymmetric reciprocal symbiosis model for a long time,but will transition to a symmetric reciprocity symbiosis model around2040.