中国产业部门隐含碳排放变化的影响因素动态研究——基于细分行业数据的实证分析

Dynamic Analysis of Influential Factors on the Change of Embodied Carbon Emissions in China’s Industrial Sectors:Empirical Research Based on the Industrial Data

基于中国投入产出数据,在开放条件下,根据Kaya恒等式,运用非竞争型I-O模型和LMDI分解模型,考察规模效应、结构效应和强度效应对中国产业部门隐含碳排放的贡献值与贡献率。实证结果表明:总体来看,除2015—2017年外,规模效应和总效应的贡献值均为正,强度效应的贡献值为负,而结构效应的影响不是单一方向的;规模效应的贡献率最大,其次是强度效应和结构效应。从28个产业部门来看,所有产业部门规模效应的贡献值均为正,而结构效应和强度效应的贡献值有正有负;近年来,越来越多产业部门总效应的贡献值为负;在不同时间段,产业部门三种效应的贡献率及其排名变化较大。从三次产业来看,规模效应、结构效应、强度效应以及总效应的贡献值有正有负,规模效应的贡献率始终位居前列。

Under the open economy conditions,this paper according to Kaya identity,using non-competitive I-O model and LMDI decomposition model to investigates the contribution of scale effect,structure effect and intensity effect to the change of embodied carbon emissions in China’s industrial sectors.The empirical results show that:(1)except from 2015 to 2017,the contribution values of scale effect and total effect are positive,the contribution value of intensity effect is negative,and the influence direction of structural effect is uncertain;In terms of contribution rate,scale effect is the largest,followed by intensity effect and structure effect.(2)From the perspective of 28 industrial sectors,the contribution value of scale effect of all 28 industrial sectors is positive,while the direction of structure effect and intensity effect is uncertain;In recent years,the number of industrial sectors with negative total effect is increasing;In different periods,the contribution rate and ranking of the three effects of the industrial sector change greatly.(3)From the perspective of the third industries,there is no obvious law in the direction of scale effect,structure effect,intensity effect and total effect,but the contribution rate of scale effect is always in the forefront.