航空装备可靠性增长评估技术研究

Study on Evaluation Technology of Aviation Equipment Reliability Growth

针对如何跟踪与控制其技术状态不断变化的航空装备可靠性增长过程的问题,应用变动统计学的原理并考虑故障数的随机特性,建立AMSAA模型进行可靠性增长评估。将可靠性增长过程中关联故障的累积过程建立在随机理论上,进行可靠性增长统计推断,获得可靠性增长率、平均故障间隔时间点估计、置信下限和置信上限,反映可靠性在变动中的增长规律,跟踪与控制增长过程,及时地掌握当前的可靠性水平并预测将来的可靠性,为提高和保证航空装备可靠性提供理论依据与技术支持。

To solve the problem of how to track and control the reliability growth process of aviation equipment with changing technical status,AMSAA model is established to evaluate the reliability growth by applying the principle of change statistics and considering the stochastic characteristics of failure number.The cumulative process of associated failures in the process of reliability growth is based on stochastic theory,and reliability growth statistical inference is carried out to obtain reliability growth rate,MTBF point estimation,confidence lower limit and confidence upper limit,reflect the growth law of reliability in change,track and control the growth process,grasp the current reliability level and predict the future reliability in time,and provide theoretical basis and technical support for improving and ensuring aviation equipment reliability.