普及化阶段高等教育层次结构的发展预测——基于江苏数据的分析

Development Anticipation of Higher Education Hierarchical Structure at the Stage of Popularization

江苏高等教育已进入普及化阶段数年,其层次结构的发展对其他省域乃至全国都具有借鉴意义。运用聚类分析法、回归分析法、自回归分析法进行预测,根据一定的参照系,形成普及化阶段江苏高等教育层次结构综合预测方案,8位专家学者对综合预测方案进行了讨论和指导,提出江苏高等教育层次结构未来发展的建议:建立健全四层次高等教育层次结构,为经济社会发展培养大批高素质技术技能型人才;适度增加本科院校数量,扩大专业学位教育规模;逐步提高层次结构重心,适度扩大博士教育规模;谨慎对待双轨制结构模式。

It has been years since the higher education in Jiangsu Province entered the stage of popularization.The development in its hierarchical structure is of referential significance for the other provinces and even the whole country.The development anticipation is achieved through cluster analysis,regression analysis and auto-regressive analysis.Eight experts and scholars discuss the anticipation program and bring forward their guiding suggestions.Finally,the proposals as for the future development in the hierarchical structure of Jiangsu higher education are put forward:establish and improve a 4-level higher education structure,cultivating a large multitude of technique and skill-oriented talents;increase moderately the number of four-year universities and expand the scale of practice-oriented master degree program;shift gradually the focus up to the top of the hierarchical structure and moderately expand the doctorate education;take a cautious attitude towards duality structure.