国家间论辩、关键节点与国际制度改革

Interstate Arguing,Critical Juncture and International Institution Reform

国际制度改革涉及不满现状国与守成国之间的谈判,谈判策略可分为讨价还价策略和论辩策略。既有研究聚焦于国家间讨价还价权力的对比。然而,物质性权力较弱的国家在讨价还价中处于不利地位,要推动国际制度改革,只能诉诸论辩策略。论辩策略的有效性取决于植根于社会共有规范和论据一致性的论据说服力。借助有说服力的论据,不满现状国可以使守成国沉默,通过说服第三方观众实现其国际制度改革诉求。战争、经济危机和大流行病等重大事件可能改变行为体之间的观念性权力对比,因而构成制度变迁中的关键节点。如果关键节点下不满现状国论据的说服力增强或守成国论据的说服力减弱,观念性权力对比都会发生有利于不满现状国的变化。不满现状国就可以通过论辩使守成国沉默,守成国将接受不满现状国的国际制度改革诉求。对巴西等发展中国家推动《与贸易有关的知识产权协定》(TRIPS协定)改革案例的过程追踪为上述理论解释提供了实证支持。

International institution reform involves negotiations between the unsatisfied states and the established state. Two negotiation strategies are available for states, that is, bargaining and arguing. Existing studies focus on the balance of bargaining power between states. However, states with weak material power are at a disadvantage in bargaining, and to seek international institution reform, they can only resort to arguing strategies. The effectiveness of arguing strategies depends on the persuasiveness of the argument rooted in social common norms and the consistency of arguments. The unsatisfied states with persuasive arguments could silence the established states and achieve their demands for international institution reform by persuading the third-party audience. Major events such as wars, economic crises, and pandemics may change the ideational power balance between actors and thus become critical junctures in institutional changes. If the persuasiveness of the unsatisfied states. argument is enhanced or that of status quo states. one is weakened in the critical junctures, the balance of ideational power would change in favor of the unsatisfied states. Under such circumstance, the unsatisfied states could silence the established state by arguing against the established state, and the latter would accept the former.s reform demands. By tracing the process of Brazil and other developing countries. successful use of arguing strategies in an attempt to reform the TRIPS agreement, the abovementioned proposition is empirically supported.