中东欧国家政治转型的比较与评估——以克罗地亚民主化进程为例

A Comparison and Evaluation of Political Transformation in the Central and Eastern European Countries: The Case of the Democratization in Croatia

在中东欧国家政治发展进程中,加入欧盟和向欧盟趋同是评估民主化的两个坐标。起初,政治转轨的开启和入盟的诉求在不同时期为民主化提供了动力。实现入盟愿景后,以治理为内容、以趋同为形式的欧洲融合成为评估民主化质量的重要参考。后冲突国家和欧盟新成员国的共同属性使克罗地亚成为考察西巴尔干地区和欧盟中东欧成员国的民主化进程及差异的极好案例和参照。从过去30年各类民主指数评级、国家治理指数得分,特别是"政府俘获"的情况可以看出,入盟对克罗地亚民主化的正向作用十分显著,但入盟后条件性约束缺失、对国内政治文化传统的"依赖"以及执政集团"政府俘获"能力强大等因素交互使得克罗地亚民主巩固的深化充满着反复、曲折甚至某种程度上的倒退。前者从西巴尔干成员入盟进度和民主化程度的正向关系得到验证,后者在几乎所有欧盟中东欧成员国出现的"非自由转向"现象中获得解释。中东欧的现象是否引发了欧洲的民主回潮趋势尚难断言,但无疑为考察欧洲一体化走向,特别是欧盟政治融合能力提供了极好的视角。

In the process of political development in the Central and Eastern European countries( CEECs),joining and converging towards the EU are the two coordinates for evaluating democratization. The common attributes of being both a post-conflict country and a new EU member state have made Croatia an excellent case and reference for examining the democratization process in and the differences among the Western Balkans and the EU countries in CEE. From the ratings of various democracy index and the national governance indicators in the past 30 years,especially the index of state capture,it can be seen that the positive effect of the EU membership on the democratization of Croatia is very prominent. However,the interaction of factors such as a lack of conditional constraints after accession,dependency on the domestic political culture and the state capture ability of the ruling group make the deepening of democratic consolidation in Croatia full of repetitions,twists and even regressions to some extent. It is difficult to tell whether the phenomenon that took place in CEE has triggered a resurgence of democracy in Europe,but it undoubtedly provides an excellent perspective for investigating the trend of European integration,especially the EU’s political integration capacity.