人口转变后劳动生产率如何提高?

How to Improve Labor Productivity after Demographic Transition?

本文引入人口抚养比和劳动就业率变量,在新增长理论的框架下,探讨中国人口转变后劳动生产率的提高路径,并通过另外11个经过了人口转变的经济体的经验加以佐证。经验表明,人口抚养比的提高与二元结构的终结的确会降低劳动生产率的增速,但对于中国来说,由于劳动力配置仍然大有空间,劳动力市场的改善将为广义生产率带来配置效率,这一贡献远超物质资本和人力资本等传统要素的贡献。所以,人口转变后,尽管中国劳动年龄人口数量下降和人口抚养比提高同时发生,失去了人口红利和二元结构的光环,但劳动生产率仍将可以依靠其他经济体无可比拟的人口规模优势带来的要素重新配置的空间托高稳态增长率,缩小与世界前沿生产率的差距。

This paper introduces the variables of dependency ratio and employment rate, so that the demographic dividend theory and dual economic theory can be linked under the framework of the new growth theory, and discusses the path of improving labor productivity after China’s population transition, which is supported by the experience of 11 other economies that have undergone population transition. International experience shows that the increase of dependency ratio and the end of dual structure will indeed reduce the growth rate of labor productivity, but for China the improvement of labor market will bring allocation efficiency to generalized productivity, as there is still much room for labor allocation, which can effectively support the steady growth rate and narrow the gap with the world’s frontier productivity. This contribution is far more than the contribution of capital and human capital. Therefore, after the demographic transition, although the shrink age in the size of working age population and the increase in the dependency ratio occur at the same time in China, losing the benefit from demographic dividend and dual structure, labor productivity will still be able to rely on the space brought about by the incomparable population size advantage, a luxury for other economies, to support the steady growth rate, and narrow the gap with the world’s leading-edge productivity.