县域国土空间开发与土地城镇化的耦合协调关系研究

The Coupling and Coordinative Relationship between County Land Space Development and Land Urbanization

【目的】伴随着经济社会升级与转型,中国步入高速的城镇化与工业化阶段,不仅国土空间开发强度发生了变化,而且土地城镇化速度也进一步提升,国土空间开发强度与土地城镇化两者之间失衡和不协调发展等问题日益突出。以位于鄱阳湖滨湖区与长江岸带的湖口县为研究区,探究国土空间开发强度和土地城镇化耦合协调迁移规律。【方法】采用变异系数法、耦合协调模型、标准差椭圆等研究分析国土空间开发强度与土地城镇化的耦合度、耦合协调度及其空间特征以及迁移规律。【结果】(1)湖口县国土空间开发强度总体呈现东北-西南方向递减趋势,而土地城镇化总体呈现西-东方向递减趋势;(2)国土空间开发强度与土地城镇化的耦合度总体上呈现东北部良好均衡型-中部初级均衡型-西南部严重失衡型或中度失衡型的演变规律;(3)国土空间开发强度与土地城镇化耦合协调度呈现为西北中度协调-东北勉强协调-西南轻度失调的趋势;(4)国土空间开发强度与土地城镇化耦合协调度的空间发展主轴保持在西南-东北方向,2009—2012年耦合协调度质心向东北偏移了353.22 m,而2012—2016年向西北偏移了45.42 m。【结论】当前县域国土空间开发强度和土地城镇化存在一定程度的不协调发展,但二者在空间上存在耦合协调关系,为进一步有序协调两者关系,应因地制宜、因势利导,实现二者和谐发展。尤其湖口县位于鄱阳湖入长江口沿线,协调国土空间开发与土地城镇化对于响应长江经济带“共抓大保护,不搞大开发”的发展战略具有积极的理论支持和实践意义。

[Objective]With the economic and social upgrading and transformation,China has entered a high-speed urbanization and industrialization stage.Not only has the intensity of land and space development changed,but the speed of land urbanization has also increased,and the imbalanced relationship between land space development intensity and land urbanization comes out.Issues such as uncoordinated development have become increasingly urgent.Taking Hukou County,located in the Poyang lakeside and the Yangtze River zone,as the research area,the coupling and coordinated relationship between land space development and land urbanization was explored.[Method]Methods of coefficient of variation,the coupling coordination model,and the standard deviation ellipse were applied to analyze the spatial characteristics of the land development intensity and land urbanization,the coupling degree and the coordination degree,and the migration law of the coupling coordination degree.[Result](1)The development intensity of land space in Hukou County generally represented a decreasing trend in the northeast-southwest direction,while the urbanization of land generally showed a decreasing trend in the west-east direction.(2)The coupling degree of land space development intensity and land urbanization generally indicated a good balance in the northeast,a primary equilibrium in the central part and a severely or moderately unbalanced type in the southwest.(3)The coupling coordination degree of land space development intensity and land urbanization represented a trend of moderate coordination in the northwest,barely coordination in the northeast and mild dissonance in the southwest.(4)The spatial development axis of the coupling coordination degree remained in the southwest-northeast direction.The centroid of the coupling coordination degree shifted to the northeast by 353.22 m between 2009 and 2012,compared with 45.42 m to the northwest during 2012—2016[.Conclusion]At present,there is a certain degree of uncoordinated development between the land space development intensity and land urbanization in the county scale,but there is a coupling and coordination relationship between the two in space.In order to coordinate the relationship between the two in an orderly manner,measures should be taken according to local conditions and guided by the situation to achieve harmonious development.Especially for Hukou,located along the estuary of Poyang Lake,coordinating of land space development and land urbanization has positive theoretical support and practical significance for responding to the development strategy of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,which is“to step up conservation of the Yangtze River and stop its over development”.