预测宫颈癌术后发生抑郁风险因素的列线图模型建立

Establishment of the nomogram model for predicting the risk factors of depression after cervical cancer surgery

目的研究宫颈癌患者术后发生抑郁的危险因素,建立风险预测列线图模型。方法回顾性分析2018年6月至2019年6月行宫颈癌手术治疗患者200例的临床资料。采用单因素和多因素logistic回归,分析宫颈癌术后发生抑郁风险的危险因素。基于筛选得到的危险因素建立列线图模型,并对模型的精准度进行验证。结果经济状况较差[比值比(OR)=4.208,95%置信区间(95%CI):1.739~10.185]、文化程度较低(OR=4.563,95%CI:1.627~12.794)、是否未婚(OR=3.364,95%CI:1.081~10.463)、子宫切除(OR=2.552,95%CI:0.962~6.774)、宫颈癌中晚期(OR=7.250,95%CI:2.189~24.012)是宫颈癌患者术后发生抑郁的独立危险因素。风险预测列线图模型内部验证结果显示,预测值基本等同于实际值,C-index指数为0.828(95%CI:0.805~0.849),风险预测模型精准度较高。结论风险预测模型能够用于分析宫颈癌患者术后发生抑郁的可能性,具有十分重要的临床价值。

Objective To study the risk factors of postoperative depression in patients with cervical cancer,and to establish a risk prediction nomogram model.Methods The clinical data of 200 patients undergoing cervical cancer surgery from June 2018 to June 2019 were retrospectively analyzed.Single factor and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of depression risk after cervical cancer surgery.A nomogram model was established based on the selected risk factors,and the accuracy of the model was verified.Results Poor economic status(OR=4.208,95%CI:1.739-10.185),low education level(OR=4.563,95%CI:1.627-12.794),unmarried marital status(OR=3.364,95%CI:1.081-10.463),hysterectomy(OR=2.552,95%CI:0.962-6.774),and advanced cervical cancer(OR=7.250,95%CI:2.189-24.012)were independent risk factors for postoperative depression in patients with cervical cancer.The internal verification results of the risk prediction nomogram model showed that the predicted value was basically equivalent to the actual value,and the C-index index was 0.828(95%CI:0.805-0.849),and the risk prediction model had high accuracy.Conclusion The risk prediction model can be used to analyze the possibility of depression in patients with cervical cancer after surgery,which has very important clinical value.