太空军备控制的现实争辩、理论逻辑和参与策略

The Debating Points,Theoretical Logic,and Engagement Strategies for Arms Control in Space

太空力量对于国家安全所具有的战略意义,使得相关国家参与讨论和推进太空军备控制时往往遵循理性分析逻辑,从国家安全利益的角度来阐述其观点,即从“利益—成本”的效费比角度来分析和参与太空军备控制。各国国家实力、利益和立场的差异,使得太空军备控制讨论出现了诸多争辩问题。直面现实争辩,寻求应对之策,需要把握和遵循太空军备控制这一实践活动所蕴含的理论逻辑。太空安全互动易于非对称制衡的特点,使得相互确保脆弱性、进而有利于维护战略稳定的太空军备控制有可能循序渐进,而当今太空领域权力失衡则是太空军备控制停滞不前的根本原因。中国应在坚定维护现有太空军备控制成果的基础上,坚持以防止太空武器化和军备竞赛为重心,充分利用联合国相关平台推进太空军备控制,同时跟踪探讨其他有利于维护太空安全的议题方案,以切实维护太空战略安全和各国合法权益。

Due to the strategic significance of space power to national security,when countries participate in the discussion and promotion of space arms control,they often follow the logic of rational analysis,that is,they elaborate their views from the perspective of national security interests.Countries analyze and participate in space arms control from the perspective of benefit-cost calculation.Due to the differences in national strength,interests,and standing,there are many controversial issues in space arms control discussion.By examining the debating issues in space arms control,we can understand the different purposes and intentions behind the attitudes of different countries in the process of participating in space arms control.Facing up to the reality of the debate,we need to grasp the theoretical logic contained in the practice of space arms control.The characteristics of asymmetrical checks and balances in space security interaction make it possible for space arms control to advance gradually,which is conducive to maintaining strategic stability by ensuring mutual vulnerability.However,the power imbalance in space is the fundamental reason for the stagnation of space arms control.At present,the space security situation is becoming increasingly severe and complex.Some countries are competing to develop space forces and seize the leading role in international rule-making.In this context,China should work with the international community,determined to maintain existing space arms control results,make full use of the United Nations-related platforms to promote space arms control,take the Prevention of Space Weaponization and Arms Race in Outer Space as the key point,and explore other initiatives of space arms control conductive to space security.