石油化工流程模拟软件现状与发展趋势

Market analysis and development trend of petrochemical process simulation software

流程模拟软件是石油化工行业的核心研发设计软件,其应用已贯穿于技术研发、工程设计、生产优化等全生命周期业务环节。我国石油化工行业使用的商业流程模拟软件90%为国外产品,基本被国外垄断。本文从商业软件的角度,首先对化工流程模拟技术和早期的软件发展进行了回顾,分析了近年来跨国流程工业巨头收购兼并案例和启示。在对石油化工企业和软件供应商调研的基础上,分析了国内流程模拟软件的市场应用情况和自主流程模拟软件的成熟度,阐述了流程模拟软件技术发展的五大趋势:遵循CAPE-OPEN软件接口规范、基于分子级表征和反应动力学建模、数据驱动与工艺机理联合建模、三大集成建模和数字孪生应用等。石化产业需求和市场规模以及科研基础是发展自主流程模拟软件的有利条件,但构建工业软件政产学研用产业生态链,形成产品化和市场化为导向的健康产业环境尤为关键。

Process simulation software is the key R&D tool for petrochemical industry,and its application has been throughout the whole life cycle of process design,engineering,operation and optimization.At present,above 90%of commercial process simulation software used in China's petrochemical industry are foreign products,which are basically monopolized by foreign countries.From the perspective of commercial software,this paper reviews the early development of chemical process simulation technology and software,and analyzes the mergers and acquisitions cases of multinational process industry giants in recent years.Based on the investigation of petrochemical enterprises and software suppliers,the paper analyzes the domestic market application of process simulation software and the maturity of independent process simulation software,and expounds five major technology development trends of process simulation software:CAPE-OPEN software interface specification,modeling based on molecular characterization and reaction kinetics,data-driven and process mechanism joint modeling,vertical integration,horizontal integration and end-to-end integration,and digital twin applications.The petrochemical industry demand,market scale and scientific research foundation are favorable conditions for the development of independent process simulation software. However, it is particularly critical to build an industrialecological chain of government, university, research institute and enterprise, and form a product-orientedand market-oriented healthy software development environment.