宁东能源化工基地节能潜力分析

Analyze the energy-saving potential of Ningdong energy and chemical industry base

本文以宁东能源化工基地为研究对象,采用数据包络分析方法,选取能源消费量、劳动力人口、工业总产值、工业SO_(2)排放量、资本投入等指标对2010-2018年基地的能源效率进行测算;运用非参数Super-SBM方法测算基地2010-2018年的节能潜力;运用Elman神经网络模型对基地2021-2035年节能潜力进行预测,剖析基地产业结构、环境政策、技术创新、能源结构与节能潜力之间的影响关系。本研究将有助于基地挖掘节能潜力,优化用能降耗,提升竞争力。

This research takes Ningdong energy and chemical industry base as the object with adopting data envelopment analysis method and selecting energy consumption,labor population,industrial gross output value,industrial SO_(2) emissions,capital investment and other indicators to calculate the energy efficiency from 2010 to 2018.Non-parametric Super-SBM method was used to calculate the energy saving potential of Ningdong energy and chemical industry base from 2010 to 2018.The energy saving potential of Ningdong energy and chemical industry base from 2021 to 2035 is predicted by Elman neural network model,and the relationship among industrial structure,environmental policy,technological innovation,energy structure and energy saving potential is analyzed.This study will help Ningdong energy and chemical industry base to exploit energy saving potential,optimize energy consumption and reduce consumption and enhance competitiveness.