新型人口红利是经济高质量发展的动力源

New Demographic Dividend is the Driving Force for High-quality Economic Development

人口红利是基于人口机会窗口动态延展的经济学概念,探讨人口红利不能脱离人口机会窗口,也不可将二者混为一谈。中国实践历程表明,以特定人口抚养比为机会窗口的传统型人口红利具有明显的生命周期特征,改革开放前半程,中国处于传统型人口红利的上升期和高峰期,缔造了高速增长的经济奇迹;当前,在传统型人口红利下沉期,中国人口红利并未消失,而是在合宜制度激活下,向新型人口红利动态转变。具体而言,新型人口红利不仅包括以健康和广义教育改善为机会窗口的资本型人口红利,还应包括以技术和产业结构升级下人口流动迁移为机会窗口的配置型人口红利,借助人口腾挪空间和双循环的大国优势,逐渐成为推动新时代经济高质量发展的动力源。

Demographic dividend is a dynamic economic concept based on the demographic opportunity window.The discussion of demographic dividend cannot be separated from the demographic opportunity window,nor can they be confused.At the early stage of Reform and Opening-up,China takes advantage of the peak period of traditional demographic dividend,creating economic miracle.At present,during the sinking period of the traditional demographic dividend,China’s demographic dividend still exists,but it will change into a new type under the appropriate economic and social development system.Specifically,new demographic dividend not only includes the capital-based demographic dividend with health and education improvement as the opportunity window,but also includes the allocation-based demographic dividend with the population immigration promoted by the upgrading of technology and industry as the opportunity window,which can fully activates the advantages of population cushion and double circulation,and form an important driving force for high-quality economic development in the new era.