双循环、数字经济发展与农民消费结构升级--基于江苏省13市的实证分析

Dual Circulation,Digital Economy and Farmers’Consumption Structure Upgrading:Empirical Analysis Based on 13 Cities in Jiangsu Province

在以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,构建新型消费体系和促进消费结构升级是进一步扩大内需、畅通国内经济循环的重要引擎。数字经济充分发挥国内超大规模市场的优势,满足居民日益多元化的消费需求,数字化的新兴消费模式在乡镇的快速扩张,促进了农村居民的消费潜力不断释放。在此背景下,探讨了数字经济发展促进农村居民消费结构升级的效应及其背后的机制。理论上,数字经济的发展能够提升产业高级化水平,从而促进农村居民消费结构升级。实证上,基于2011—2018年江苏省13个地级以上城市的面板数据,首先对数字经济发展水平进行了测度,并在此基础上进行计量分析。结果表明,数字经济的发展对农民消费结构升级有显著的促进作用,经过稳定性检验后该效应依然成立。作用机制分析表明,促进产业结构高级化是数字经济发展释放农民内需潜力的重要机制。最后,采用区域异质性分析,发现苏南五市数字经济发展对农民消费结构升级的影响效应大于江苏省的苏北八市,产业结构升级作为中介效应的作用机制在苏北地区成立,在苏南地区该作用机制并不显著。数字经济在供给和需求领域两端发力,驱动产业结构和消费结构“双升级”,对新发展阶段实现经济高质量发展和畅通国内经济大循环具有重要的意义。

Under the new development pattern of a large domestic cycle as the mainstay and dual domestic and international cycles promoting each other,building a new consumption system and promoting the upgrading of consumption structure is an important engine to further expand domestic demand and smooth the domestic economic cycle.The development of the digital economy gives full play to the advantages of the domestic mega market to meet the increasingly diversified consumption needs of residents,the rapid expansion of digital emerging consumption models in rural towns,and the continuous release of consumption potential of rural residents.In this context,this paper explores the effect of the development of digital economy in promoting the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents and the mechanism behind it.Theoretically,the development of digital economy can enhance the level of industrial sophistication and thus promote the upgrading of consumption structure of rural residents.Empirically,based on the panel data of 13 prefecture-level and above cities in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2018,the level of digital economy development is first measured,and an econometric analysis is conducted on this basis.The results show that the development of digital economy has a significant promotion effect on the upgrading of farmers’consumption structure;the effect still holds after the stability test;the analysis of the mechanism of action shows that the promotion of advanced industrial structure is an important mechanism for the development of digital economy to release the potential of farmers’domestic demand.Finally,using regional heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the effect of digital economy development on farmers’consumption structure upgrading is greater in five cities in southern Jiangsu Province than in eight cities in northern Jiangsu Province,and the mechanism of industrial structure upgrading as a mediating effect holds in northern Jiangsu Province,but the mechanism of action is not significant in southern Jiangsu Province.The development of digital economy drives the“double upgrade”of industrial structure and consumption structure in both supply and demand areas,which is important to achieve high-quality economic growth and smooth the domestic economic cycle in the new development stage.