中国企业债务的重要特征与近期演变

Features and Recent Evolution of Corporate Debt in China

近年来,中国企业债务的激增引发了世界范围内的较大关注与讨论,为此有必要考察中国企业债务的重要特征与近期演变,尤其是关注供给侧结构性改革与新冠疫情对企业债务的影响。研究发现:与美国主要是家庭部门借债不同,自2008年以来,中国主要是由非金融企业部门推动着债务总额与GDP比率的快速上升。更重要的是,中国企业债务具有高度的“结构性特征”,即大部分债务集中在一小部分企业。2015年以来实行的供给侧结构性改革有效降低了国有企业的负债率并提升了其业绩水平。与此同时,新冠肺炎疫情对中国去杠杆进程的影响是有限的。深化资本市场改革以提高企业的直接融资比重,并同时深化国有企业改革,对于缓解中国的企业债务风险至关重要。

This paper examines the important features and recent evolution of China's corporate debt,paying particular attention to the impact of supply-side structural reforms and of COVID-19 on corporate debt.First,we find that the non-financial corporate sector is the main driver of the rapid rise in China's total debt-to-GDP ratio since 2008,unlike the U.S.,where the household sector borrows the most.More importantly,China’s corporate debt is found highly“structural”,due to its large concentration in a fraction of firms.What is worth noting is that the supply-side structural reforms implemented since 2015 have effectively reduced the debt ratios of SOEs and improved their performance.Meanwhile,the impact of COVID-19 on the deleveraging process in China appears limited.It is crucial to mitigate China's corporate debt risks by deepening capital market reforms to increase the share of direct financing for enterprises and simultaneously accelerating SOE reforms.