中国省际人口投入产出表扩展研究

Study on Expansion of China’s Interprovincial Population Input-Output Table

随着人口老龄化加剧和人口生育率下降,研究人口年龄结构相关问题的重要性不断提高,但是包含人口年龄分组信息的结构化数据表格不能满足其研究的需求。文章在中国省际人口投入产出表的研究基础上,从理论基础、表格形式及数据处理方法等方面探讨了省际人口投入产出表的扩展问题。结果显示:(1)考虑人口年龄分组信息时,省际人口投入产出表理论上可以扩展到包括省际分组、时间跨期和年龄分组的省际人口投入产出扩展表形式;(2)省际人口投入产出表的数据编制可分类完成,先计算人口的非中间流量数据,再借助于GM-RAS方法估计人口的中间流量数据;(3)省际人口投入产出扩展表数据的分类编制方法是可行的,其编制结果理论上是有效的。

With the increase of population ageing and the decrease of fertility rate, the research on age structure of population becomes more and more important, but the structured data tables containing the information of population age groups cannot meet the demand of the research. Based on the researches of China’s interprovincial population input-output table, this paper discusses the expansion of interprovincial population input-output table from the theoretical basis, the form of the table and the data processing methods. The conclusions are as follows:(1) In theory, the interprovincial population input-output table can be extended to the form of expanded tables including interprovincial, inter-temporal and inter-age groups when age group information is considered.(2) The data compilation of the interprovincial population input-output table can be completed by classification;the non-intermediate flow data of the population is calculated first, and then the intermediate flow data of the population is estimated by means of GM-RAS method.(3) The method of classifying and compiling the data of the interprovincial population input-output expanded table is feasible and the compiling result is effective in theory.